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With the Democrats facing historical headwinds and an extremely unfavorable political climate fueled by record inflation and President Biden’s plunging poll numbers as they try to hang on to their razor-thin majority in the House of Representatives, Republicans are confident they’ll win back the chamber in November’s midterm elections.
The latest Fox News Power Rankings forecast the GOP retaking control of the House majority that they lost in the 2018 midterms. The modeling estimates, released on Monday, point to a Republican majority of at least seven seats — and possibly up to 37 seats in the GOP’s “best case” scenario — when the new House meets at the beginning of next year.
While the GOP lost control of the White House and the Senate majority in the 2020 elections, House Republicans defied expectations and took a big bite out of the Democrats’ control of the chamber. Now, Democrats hope that with the recent blockbuster move by the Supreme Court’s conservative majority to overturn the landmark, half century old, Roe v. Wade ruling legalizing abortion, an energized electorate will help them defy the current expectations by political prognosticators.
With the once-in-a-decade congressional redistricting process now in the rearview mirror, here’s a look at the 10 most interesting and notable House seats that may flip in November’s House showdowns.
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Republican seats that could flip to Democrats
Republican Mayra Flores made history last month as she won an open House special election seat for a district along the nation’s southern border in Texas’ Rio Grande Valley. Flores became the first Mexican-born congresswoman and the first GOP candidate ever to win the heavily Hispanic district. But Flores will face a bluer electorate in the newly drawn district that she’ll run for re-election in November. Fox News rates this district Lean Democrat.
The district is currently represented by GOP Rep. Rodney Davis. But with the district turning blue thanks to redistricting, Davis unsuccessfully ran for renomination last month in a neighboring seat, leaving the 13th District open. Fox News rates this district a Toss Up.
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Democrats-held seats that could flip to Republicans
Democratic Rep. Tom O’Halleran, who was re-elected in 2020 with 51.6% of the vote in AZ-01, is running in the newly drawn AZ-02, which partially resembles his current district. Fox News rates this district Likely Republican.
Democratic Rep. Charlie Crist, who was re-elected in 2020 with 53% of the vote, is running for governor, leaving this a Democratic controlled open seat. Fox News rates this district Likely Republican.
Democratic Rep. Ron Kind, who was re-elected in 2020 with 513% of the vote, is retiring, leaving this a Democratic controlled open seat. Fox News rates this district Likely Republican.
Democratic Rep. Susan Wild is being challenged by GOP nominee Lisa Scheller in a district where suburban female voters will play an important role. Fox News rates this district Lean Republican.
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The seat is currently held by Democratic Rep. John Garamendi, who after redistricting was elected to run in the 8th District. The new CA-03 is home to the highest gas prices in the country, according to figures from AAA. Fox News rates this district Lean Republican.
Democratic Rep. Tom Malinowski, who was re-elected in 2020 with just 50.6% of the vote, is running for re-election in a seat that turned slightly more favorable to the GOP due to redistricting. Fox News rates this district Lean Republican.
Embattled Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar, one of the last remaining pro-life Democrats in Congress, is facing a challenge from GOP nominee Cassidy Garcia in a heavily Hispanic border district. Fox News rates this district a Toss Up.
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Democratic Rep. Kim Schrier, who was re-elected in 2020 with 517% of the vote, is running for re-election. Fox News rates this district a Toss Up.
Fox News’ Remy Numa and Matthew Wall contributed to this story